01 Nov Horse racing tips: 11-1 shot will relish the soft ground and can bolt up at Catterick

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 13 winners from a total of 195 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 12 runners. On trainer changes, it is obvious that not all trainers are equally talented and, especially, not all trainers are equally good at finding the key to a horse in their care. A change of scenery is sometimes enough, but often it is a change of regime or some personal attention – maybe a weekly back massage or whatever – that can aid a horse’s progression. Under the conditions of the race, we can see that ‘Led’ (green blob) types have fared best.

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• Lightly raced, as is often the modus operandi with Willie Mullins’ better mares, Concertista has run just twice this term.
• It’s calculation requires a little unpacking and, rather than do that here, you’re encouraged to look at this racing metrics article where I explain and exemplify each of IV, A/E and PRB in more detail.
• The favourite, at around 7/2, is A Plus Tard, whose Betfair Chase demolition job at Haydock propelled him to the top of the lists.
• Last year, Put The Kettle On was a 16/1 chance when winning by a length and a half.
• He’s a fine horse, very consistent and seems to be thriving.
• She only made she Irish debut about 3 weeks ago and ploughed through every hurdle but hit the line strong.

Nicky Henderson has Jingko Blue, three times a runner and twice a winner to date. A non-standard prep has seen him eschew Graded action in favour of a Class 3 handicap last time out; he fair bolted up there, seeing his official rating balloon from 124 to 140 in the process. Even allowing for the further progression that leap implies, he still has something like a stone to find with Ballyburn. And soft ground may not be in his favour, though the jury remains out on that score.

How to quantify trainer form pre-Cheltenham?

However, having said that, taking the overall data into account, one could do worse than focusing attention on this price band. LH – Galopin Des Champs is a very likely winner but, at bigger prices, Ahoy Senor could have a perfect setup in this test. Although Bravemansgame may prefer flatter tracks, he has the strongest form in the race this season. Strongly against A Plus Tard’s profile coming into the race. Even at his best, which we’ve not seen for a year, GdC would beat him anyway.

Horse racing terms

It is no surprise to see horses that ran in Ireland LTO coming out on top in terms of strike rate, returns and A/E indices. There is, however, one Irish course where caution might be advised, and that is Gowran Park. Just 2 winners from 90 runners in the last 15 years prepped there, with losses amounting to over 88p in the £. The data show a poor record for odds-on runners, but in general short- to mid-range prices do quite well. The cut off price looks to be at 14/1 – at this price and bigger Grade 1 runners have performed poorly.

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For example, the going at Cheltenham last week was Good and it was noticeable that connections did not want to risk some of their better class horses making seasonal returns and debuts on anything other than totally ideal jumping ground. It could be that the summer types have conditions swung back in their favour at this later stage of their campaigns. In theory William Money is thrown-in racing of a 15lb lower mark than when winning over fences 2 days ago. The question is whether he will transfer that form to hurdles. Live and Table Games have a 0% contribution, only Slots & instants count towards playthrough. Today, horse racing betting is a £4.6 billion per year industry.

Cheltenham Festival: The 15 year View

• You can look at a horse’s past performances to work out whether the ground conditions will suit – and it’s understanding these crucial variables that can give punters the edge.
• Teenager Jack Kennedy made sure there was no hard luck story by keeping out of trouble on the outside and cruised into contention on the final bend, taking up the running from Vision Des Flos.
• Their promotional offers for horse racing are more than decent, frequent throughout the year, and all the more interesting around big race meets.
• That leaves Gentleman De Mee, perhaps the most likely pace angle.
• We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG.
• A short-head Wolverhampton maiden victor in November, Fast Company’s son made his return for 2022 in the Listed Burradon Stakes on Newcastle’s All-Weather Championships Finals card in April.

Tiger Roll is only small but stays longer than Matt Chapman on Dancing On Ice and he loves Cheltenham, having completed a bizarre double in the two-mile Triumph Hurdle and four-mile National Hunt Chase here. Racing needs superstars, ITV needs the sport to have superstars, and there is relief all round that we will see racing’s current A-lister, Altior, in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Mick Fitzgerald knows the time of day at Nicky Henderson’s yard and describes Altior as a rocket who would win the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and probably the Champions League if they let him enter it. I’m going to go for MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, he should get the distance fine and you can’t argue with Willie Mullins’ runners in these big races. It’s time for Paddy’s Ultimate Grand National Cheat Sheet taking in insight from everyone including National winning jockey Ruby Walsh.

Cheltenham Festival Trainer Form Conclusions

So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book. The string of numbers to the left of each horse’s name are the form figures and they are places they have finished in their most recent races, reading from left to right with regards to their latest position. So if a horse has figures of , it would have won its last three races but finished sixth the time before. I’ve always been a big believer that it’s the best horse who wins the race and not necessarily the best trainer or jockey, but that’s a debate that continues to run.

Horse racing tips

He was being closed down by Riviere d’Etel, who had led to the last fence before blundering, but was conceding nine pounds to that five-year-old mare. Saint Sam, who had led until the second last, was a further four lengths back while the quietly fancied Haut En Couleurs was an early faller. Edwardstone tops the pile on just about every ratings compiler’s list, and he heads the betting, too. Brought down on fencing debut, that inauspicious introduction has long been forgotten as he has subsequently strung four straight chase wins together, three of them in Graded company, one a Grade 1. He jumped very well at Warwick in the Grade 2 Kingmaker last time but, prior to that, had put in the odd clumsy one. With a versatile run style and the best form in the book, he has a very obvious chance to add to trainer Alan King’s two previous Arkle scores.

Premier League Predictions: Lawro sees Man United win but Everton and Villa to lose

Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future. Get Rhythm is worth keeping an eye on, although testing ground is a concern. Spice Fair is exposed, but ran second in this race last year and is expected to go well at big odds. He looks progressive, but hasn’t been missed in the market.

The jockeys’ championships

The nature of most HC1 plays is that we’re grappling in the dark, with every chance that the horse is just not very able and runs a clunker. Below are a few more Instant Expert grids, and your challenge is to decide which horses offered playable value, and which races looked too competitive and should have been passed. Even if we’re right about the true odds being 7/2, we’re still looking at 77.7% losers. But, over a thousand £1 bets, those 22.3% winners (223) will return £1,115 – or a profit of 11.5%.

50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

There are horse racing tips all over the internet to help you find a good deal and get to grips with some of the many unusual phrases that you will find here. With livestreams, plenty of odds, and fast horse racing results, bookies work hard to ensure that bettors have everything they need to master this type of wagering. Take a look at some of the races and odds available at the best online horse racing betting sites now.

Types of horse race bets

• That doesn’t mean Ireland doesn’t have a say in the race, though, as Irish-bred horses have been responsible for the last five winners and ten of the last 11 (exception French-bred).
• Gaillard du Mesnil is opposable at the prices in the NH Chase.
• He’s won them all, but that might be something to keep in mind if you’re tempted to pile in at cramped odds.
• Looking at the runners at the head of the market over the last 20 renewals there have been 4 winning favourites in the race.
• Their French form suggests both will be waited with to varying degrees.

This is a ‘hands and heels’ handicap hurdle for amateurs and conditionals – whips not to be used. Not the sort of race I would get too seriously involved with. Only Sir Note and Lemon’s Gent come into this race in form and both look beatable.

Handy enough throughout, he pounced on trailblazing Dysart Dynamo approaching the second last and had enough energy left to go clear of a three-way picture for the places between Banbridge, DD and Appreciate It. If they all stand up it’s hard to see the placed horses reversing with the winner, in spite of the argument that the furlong and a bit shorter trip might favour the pace horse. Bolts Up Daily That said, El Fabiolo did not impress with his jumping at Leopardstown. At 16-1 and bigger, with extra places on offer, that makes plenty of appeal. Jigme went on to win the Grade 1 Grand Course later in the year and that form, along with what he’s achieved in two starts at Cheltenham this winter, make him a solid option. Altior, late injury scare or not, is definitely the one to beat.

• Thirdly, cheekpieces have been more about futility than utility outside of handicap chases.
• In one of the trickiest betting races of the week, Noble Dynasty has to make the short-list, along with Jimi Hendrix, Sinjaari and Lawful Command.
• Decent jumping ground at both with course alterations affecting the official distances.
• Brave Seasca, who has progressed through soft ground handicaps but was no match for Edwardstone last time, is probably a little out of his depth.
• So you can know exactly what people are talking about, you should make sure to learn some of the following lingo.
• Her recent form is consistent and ties in with the likes of Burning Victory but she’s won only once from five starts over hurdles since her maiden score.
• We have built the fastest cars and bikes but the racehorse is pure nature.

He will again face the second horse from that Grade 1, Notebook, if both stand their ground at the weekend, and the fact that Notebook is circa 5/1 third choice for Dublin’s Festival Chase speaks of the paucity of opposition once more. There is the not inconsiderable frame of Min betwixt and between in the weekend market but, in the same ownership as Chacun Pour Soi, it is unclear what might be gained from that pair locking horns. Mind you, they did last season, CPS prevailing by most of four lengths. The tl;dr (bit late now, I realise) is that five of the last six winners – four of them, like Shishkin, odds-on favourites – won by six lengths or more.

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• He ran fourth in last season’s Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle so is likely to be finishing strongly at this easier distance.
• The racecards are listed in time order and include all today’s horse racing fixtures for the UK & Ireland, including the biggest festivals like Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown, Royal Ascot and Goodwood.
• The jockey of Presenting Percy, has now own at 13 successive Festivals.
• Once we’ve identified likely fast finishers in the field, we need to overlay the circumstances in which they recorded their fast finish on top of how we perceive today’s race will be run.
• And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation.

Stablemate Winter Fog has been hit hard by the handicapper after an easy win on stable debut last time but is not without place appeal as a lightly raced type, despite being a nine-year-old. He ran fourth in last season’s Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle so is likely to be finishing strongly at this easier distance. The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +52.50 is when runners had 1 place in the past 30 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins in Flat (AW) races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-71. The leading jockey in the Ayr Gold Cup over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Jimmy Styles (2009) and Redford (2010). Two jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Ayr Gold Cup, Paul Mulrennan has ridden 13 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst David Allan has ridden 12 without a winner.

Then we head to Wales for the two meetings on Tuesday with good prize money on offer at Bangor and further south for Chepstow. Decent jumping ground at both with course alterations affecting the official distances. Horse race gambling is the cornerstone of the sports betting world, and has been for the best part of a century.

• We start the week in Scotland with an extended seven race card at Ayr.
• In his most recent start, Gaelic Warrior was outpaced on heavy ground before finishing strongly to take third of 14.
• Looking at the winning odds over the last 20 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Baron Bolt in 2018, winning for Paul Cole at odds of 28/1 under the guidance of Cameron Noble.
• I was so taken with his outright demolition of a solid Graded handicap field in the G2 Peter Marsh at Haydock that I backed him for the Gold Cup.
• He travels like a dream, jumps very well and, if he faces the starter at Cheltenham, will have managed more runs this season than in the previous two combined.
• This approach works just as well for National Hunt races as it does for those on the flat, as example 6 perfectly demonstrates.
• Altior looked to be struggling but his jockey held him together.

David Pipe has a terrific 8 from 75 record in the last decade in Festival handicap chases, for a small SP profit. Although most winners were clustered in the six to nine years bracket, neither youth nor experience has been a killer blow in handicap chases. Winners have emerged from across the spectrum, with the winning-most ages from a number of victories perspective being the losing-most from a betting perspective. Again, little of note here except that those novices aged nine or more running in Grade 1 novice races at the Festival have done poorly.

The undoubted highlight of day one is the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle. Since just under two hours before last year’s Champion Hurdle, Constitution Hill has been close to, or outright, favourite for the 2023 renewal. The reason for that was his destruction of a solid-looking Supreme Novices’ Hurdle field in the 2022 curtain raiser, where he easily despatched Jonbon et al in a very fast time. True, both Dysart Dynamo (joint favourite with CH that day) and Mighty Potter, unbeaten in four since, both failed to complete; but that is, after all, a fairly important part of the challenge. Corach Rambler won the race last year and will again be played late; he was much the best that day and is only six pounds higher now. A fine fourth of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy as was) in November was his most recent run, though that was 108 days ago.